This course is designed to provide the student with methods for the construction of economic scenarios. We are interested in predicting the future, that is not an exact science but instead consists in a set of statistical tools and techniques which are supported by human judgment and intuition. The course surveys several quantitative techniques commonly used to forecast business (future customer demand for a firm’s goods and services) and economic variables (business cycle turning points), and covers real-world economic applications.

1. Type of Forecasting Model and Tools for Practical Business Forecasting
2. The General Linear Regression Model
3. Forecasting with a Single-Equation Regression Model
4. Elements of Univariate Time-Series Methods and Forecasting
5. Building and Presenting Short-Term Forecasting Models

Knowledge and understanding: the student will learn the different forecasting methods by which build different economic scenarios. Moreover, (s)he will acquire the knowledge of the different data sources available and the way they can be managed by means of different softwares.

Applying knowledge and understanding: the student will be able to make forecasts by means of both quantitative and subjective methods. Moreover, (s)he will be able to evaluate their respective efficacy.

Making judgements: the student will be able to find and analyse the necessary information to solve her/his specific problem, to choose the best methodology and to evaluate its efficacy.

Communication skills: the student will learn to comunicate the results of her/his analysis by means of reports and graphs. In some cases the student will learn to work within groups and to contribute to the building of an economic scenario.

Learning skills: the student will be able to apply her/his knowledge acquired in previous classes and to integrate them with further professional abilities that characterize this class.

Modalità didattiche

The course will consist in lectures and class discussions. Students will be required to present a short forecasting paper on a subject to be agreed upon with the instructor.

Testi di studio

M. K. Evans, Practical Business Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing, Third Edition, 2002, Chapters 1-9.

Modalità di
accertamento

Written examination: a paper of 10 pages describing a forecasting exercise.

Disabilità e DSA

Le studentesse e gli studenti che hanno registrato la certificazione di disabilità o la certificazione di DSA presso l'Ufficio Inclusione e diritto allo studio, possono chiedere di utilizzare le mappe concettuali (per parole chiave) durante la prova di esame.

A tal fine, è necessario inviare le mappe, due settimane prima dell’appello di esame, alla o al docente del corso, che ne verificherà la coerenza con le indicazioni delle linee guida di ateneo e potrà chiederne la modifica.